Scaling up autonomous eVTOL operation
The release of the “Interim regulations on the flight management of unmanned aircraft” by the Chinese government marks a significant milestone in establishing a legal framework for autonomous Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft in China. Similarly, the Australian Civil Aviation Safety Authority has also issued an advisory circular providing guidance on the design of vertiports. Boeing and its fully-owned subsidiary Wisk Aero published their roadmap for the operation of automated and un-crewed aircraft. These advancements represent significant strides in the development of eVTOL technology, offering valuable insights into how the aviation industry can pursue its objectives of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 through the utilization of eVTOL.
Based on IATA’s 77th Annual General Meeting resolution, it is estimated that transitioning from traditional fossil fuel-powered aircraft to electric or hydrogen propulsion planes will potentially save billions of liters of fuel, according to the IATA Fly Net Zero commitment. While the hydrogen solution still remains in the conceptual stage, the Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing aircraft and autonomous Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing aircraft, may already provide a pragmatic solution.
Vision of the future
Considering the progression of the Advanced Air Mobility market, it is conceivable that piloted eVTOL aircraft will soon become a significant option for the private aviation sector. However, it’s worth noting that the commercial aviation industry may require a different approach. Commercial airlines serve millions of short-haul passengers daily, and if each eVTOL can only accommodate four to six passengers, meeting such travel demand with human pilots becomes a very challenging task.
On the other hand, the introduction of Autonomous Passenger Carrying Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing aircraft (A-EVTOL) can offer a technically and economically viable solution for commercial operations. By bypassing the need to train human pilots, the A-EVTOL approach can be scaled-up quickly driven by the mass production of the equipment. Through the strong collaboration of forward-thinking airlines (referred to as “Future-Liners”), infrastructure providers, and equipment manufacturers, the groundwork for a futuristic and sustainable advanced air mobility solution can be laid.
Regulators: Unveiling the realm of A-EVTOL
The aviation authorities play a crucial role as the main regulatory body responsible for creating the necessary legal framework that permits Future-liners to operate A-EVTOLs. Embracing this new technology and venturing into the realm of autonomously controlled aviation equipment requires a clear vision and ambitious approach from the aviation authorities. Regulators shall not limit their roles as a safeguard for aviation safety but also extend their scope to support the growth of the industry.
The Chinese government sees the market potential of unmanned aerial vehicles and has published a series of laws and regulations in the areas of manufacturer certification, data communication interface and cloud system data specification to facilitate the development of the industry. With the support of the Civil Aviation Administration of China “CAAC”, EHang, a Chinese A-EVTOL manufacturer, received the first type certificate to it passenger-carrying unmanned aerial vehicle system EH216-S in China in 2023.
The aviation authority’s proactive approach will not only highlight their strong commitment to safety but also demonstrate their dedication to adopting this groundbreaking technology to embrace the future mode of air travel.
Future-liners: Providing the backbone of the A-EVTOL ecosystem
Future-liners hold a central position within the A-EVTOL ecosystem. Although the business model of Future-liners has many similar functions to the traditional airlines, such as flight planning, operation control, maintenance, it also differs significantly from that of traditional airlines or piloted eVTOL operators in three key aspects:
Autonomy/ remotely piloted: One of the primary distinctions is that Future-liners do not require pilots to operate the A-EVTOLs. Instead, the operation of A-EVTOLs is managed by a remote operation control computer located in the Future-liner’s operation control center. Almost all aspects of the operation are handled autonomously by the computer system, with human intervention limited to emergency situations. By centralizing the operation on the ground, crew costs can be reduced and more passengers and cargo can be carried.
Flexibility in operation: Without the pilot constrains, Future-liners offer a much more flexible mode of transportation. Their A-EVTOLs can be positioned at any vertiport and do not have to return to the base unless due to maintenance requirements. When a passenger needs a flight, he can just go to the nearest vertiport to board his A-EVTOLs operated by the Future-liners. Instead of the current prevalent “air taxi” model, the A-EVTOL’s business model is more like an autonomous “aircraft sharing” model.
Flexibility in ownership: Given that A-EVTOLs do not require a crew to operate, they can be positioned anywhere with a vertiport. The option to place the A-EVTOLs on a passenger’s property enables the passenger to own the equipment if exclusive use is the preferred choice. While Future-Liners are responsible for flight operation and the airworthiness of A-EVTOLs, the equipment ownership can be determined based on passengers’ preferences.
The unique features of Future-Liners’ business model, propelled by autonomous operation and enhanced flexibility, position A-EVTOLs as a promising and complementary addition to the transportation landscape, especially within the realm of urban mobility and transportation.
A-EVTOL OEM: The enabler to materialize the vision
A-EVTOL Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are central to realizing the vision of A-EVTOLs. These manufacturers serve as the fundamental drivers of technological advancement. In addition to the telecommunication and navigational prerequisites, their responsibility extends to developing robust safety redundancy mechanisms embedded within their products.
Considering their autonomous nature, the A-EVTOLs must possess the capability to navigate unforeseen weather conditions, rectify equipment or system irregularities, and execute emergency procedures. This requires significant design efforts and real-world operational experience from the A-EVTOL OEMs to ensure the efficient and safe functioning of A-EVTOLs across a variety of scenarios.
Beyond addressing functional considerations, A-EVTOL manufacturers face the multiple imperatives to enhance their products in terms of extending operational range, elevating speed performance, optimizing energy efficiency and reducing charging times. All these improvements must be achieved while upholding affordability to ensure the financial feasibility of the ecosystem.
The role of A-EVTOL OEMs is not only to create innovative aerial vehicles but also to equip them with comprehensive safety features while maintaining a balance between technological sophistication and economic viability.
Wisk Aero is leading the way in demonstrating the potential of self-flying air taxi services. Their example highlights that A-EVTOL OEMs are not solely focused on developing and selling the aircraft themselves; they are also actively working on the comprehensive ground-based control systems. Much like the autonomous driving industry, companies like Wisk Aero are training their A-EVTOLs to navigate through complex weather conditions and respond to unexpected air traffic situations. Only via this holistic approach, a safe and efficient operation of A-EVTOL services can be achieved in the future.
Infrastructure providers: Exploiting the full market potential
Like the EVTOLs, the landing and charging infrastructure providers are essential for facilitating the accessibility of A-EVTOL operation within urban areas. A-EVTOLs have higher requirements than the piloted EVTOLs in terms of data communication since there is no pilot to talk to the ground. Furthermore, due to its un-crewed nature, A-EVTOLs also possess a unique capability to bridge the gaps in accessibility to the remote areas. By strategically establishing landing and recharging facilities in these less-connected regions, A-EVTOLs’ services can become lifelines, linking remote communities to vital resources and essential services. A-EVTOLs can reach their market potential and cater to a diverse customer base effectively only with the support of landing and charging infrastructure providers and city planners.
Start point: Target the low risk market first
Unlike piloted EVTOLs, our Lufthansa Consulting perspective is that the A-EVTOL’s prospects for early success in densely populated cities such as Shanghai, New York, or Paris can be quite doubtful due to the substantial safety risks it presents to the general public. A-EVTOL needs to undergo a process of cultivating public trust and gaining acceptance. One effective approach to achieve this is to demonstrate its safety in operation in relatively low-risk “testing markets” before attempting to establish a presence in major urban centers.
A promising starting point could involve offshore cargo and potentially even emergency passenger operation since they are located far from densely populated areas and entail manageable risks. These operations offer a lower-risk alternative that is more likely to receive approval from regulators and politicians. Simultaneously, this “pre-operation” offers opportunities for OEMs and future-liners to further finetune their technology, ultimately preparing them for entry into a full-scale passenger operation. The key to success is that both the OEMs and future-liners needs to pinpoint such markets in the world and make joint effort with local aviation authorities unlock the A-EVTOL market potential.
In summary, the rapid progress of aviation and wireless telecommunication technologies has positioned Autonomous Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing aircraft (A-EVTOLs) as a distinct means of transportation in the realm of Advanced Air Mobility. These A-EVTOLs promise swift and convenient access to urban zones, corporate campuses, private estates and remote locations without carbon emission. To realize the full market potential of A-EVTOLs, cohesive collaboration among crucial stakeholders is required. Key players such as the aviation authorities, Future-Liners, landing and charging infrastructure providers and A-EVTOL OEMs must unite their efforts to establish a financially viable business model with a high level of safety assurance. By harnessing these collaborative forces, the market potential of A-EVTOLs can be fully unlocked, revolutionizing urban mobility and transportation paradigms.
Lufthansa Consulting focuses on offering and executing innovative strategies in the realm of advanced air mobility. Our services aim to assist clients in shaping and realizing their future air mobility visions in collaboration with other key stakeholders.
Author: Haihong Xu, Senior Consultant, Lufthansa Consulting